CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-10-09T07:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-10-09T07:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17922/-1
CME Note: The CME is a full asymmetrical halo in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. The associated eruption followed the M1.6 class flare from AR 2882 and was characterized by significant dimming, an EUV wave and post-eruptive arcades seen starting after 2021-10-09T06:33Z mostly to the West from AR 2882 in SDO AIA 193, 304, 171 and in EUVI A 195 starting at 2021-10-09T06:33Z. The CME arrival (a clear shock) is characterized by a sudden simultaneous jump of magnetic field (Bz to almost -14 nT), solar wind speed to 450 km/s from 350 km/s and ion density to above 25 cm^-3. Bz was intermittently in the negative for a few hours and B total reached the maximum of 16 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-12T01:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-12T01:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center
Sent: Saturday, October 9, 2021 8:11 AM
To: gsfc-m2m-team
Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert
This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2021-10-12T01:00:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 4
max_estimated_peak_K: 6
probability_of_arrival: 75
---
:Issued: 2021 Oct 09 1033 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/cactus
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# HALO CME ALERTS from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium), generated by CACTUS #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A halo or partial-halo CME was detected with the following characteristics:
t0 | dt0| pa | da | v | dv | minv| maxv|
2021-10-09T07:12:07.588 | 1.0 | 251 | 252 | 566 | 99 | 364 | 819
t0: onset time, earliest indication of liftoff
dt0: duration of liftoff (hours)
pa: principal angle, counterclockwise from North (degrees)
da: angular width of the CME (degrees),
v: median velocity (km/s)
dv: variation (1 sigma) of velocity over the width of the CME
mindv: lowest velocity detected within the CME
maxdv: highest velocity detected within the CME
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Lead Time: 63.22 hour(s)Difference: 0.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2021-10-09T10:33Z
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